Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.016652 0.018885 0.021313 0.024150 0.027376 0.030932 0.035152
2025-04-27 0.013289 0.016384 0.020046 0.024702 0.030475 0.037410 0.046391
2025-05-04 0.011561 0.015083 0.019494 0.025435 0.033248 0.043203 0.056895
2025-05-11 0.009993 0.013649 0.018447 0.025219 0.034568 0.047067 0.065132
2025-05-18 0.008878 0.012618 0.017726 0.025238 0.036051 0.051130 0.073889
2025-05-25 0.007868 0.011585 0.016845 0.024866 0.036854 0.054212 0.081446
2025-06-01 0.007244 0.011016 0.016533 0.025232 0.038691 0.058867 0.091683
2025-06-08 0.006576 0.010302 0.015917 0.025047 0.039630 0.062203 0.100155
2025-06-15 0.006215 0.010013 0.015903 0.025763 0.041995 0.067899 0.112851
2025-06-22 0.005558 0.009187 0.014963 0.024894 0.041704 0.069290 0.118577
2025-06-29 0.005093 0.008627 0.014393 0.024564 0.042242 0.072041 0.126790
2025-07-06 0.004587 0.007950 0.013568 0.023716 0.041799 0.073063 0.132036
2025-07-13 0.004409 0.007826 0.013675 0.024509 0.044327 0.079509 0.147735
2025-07-20 0.004210 0.007648 0.013673 0.025110 0.046568 0.085655 0.163528
2025-07-27 0.004050 0.007524 0.013751 0.025852 0.049122 0.092578 0.181452
2025-08-03 0.003768 0.007148 0.013337 0.025633 0.049829 0.096088 0.193052
2025-08-10 0.003544 0.006862 0.013064 0.025652 0.050987 0.100541 0.206942
2025-08-17 0.003292 0.006498 0.012610 0.025274 0.051313 0.103372 0.217758
2025-08-24 0.003150 0.006338 0.012537 0.025646 0.053183 0.109452 0.235969
2025-08-31 0.002957 0.006059 0.012206 0.025458 0.053871 0.113149 0.249399
2025-09-07 0.002874 0.006000 0.012311 0.026186 0.056552 0.121253 0.273314
2025-09-14 0.002639 0.005601 0.011685 0.025303 0.055672 0.121634 0.279848
2025-09-21 0.002474 0.005340 0.011327 0.024967 0.055960 0.124581 0.292547